Prescient Lightning fans have been dreading this day for a few years- the day after the Tampa Bay Lightning 2015/2016 season, and the day when future salary cap headaches become present-day problems requiring immediate attention. We were hoping, obviously, it would be an issue Steve Yzerman and co. could tackle while tasting from Lord Stanley's chalice; as we know, the Lightning's elimination last night at the hands of the Penguins means that will not be the case. No matter the result of this season, though, we knew that at its conclusion, Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, J.T. Brown, Alex Killorn, Vladislav Namestnikov, Cedric Paquette, and Nikita Nesterov would require new contracts (with the captain, of course, potentially hitting unrestricted free agency), and the decisions made on these players would require consideration of the new deals needed for Victor Hedman, Ben Bishop, Andrei Vasilveskiy, Brian Boyle, Slater Koekkoek, Andrej Sustr, and Jonathan Drouin after 2016/2017 (with Hedman, Bishop, and Boyle hitting the open market) and for Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat after 2017/2018 . To put it bluntly, there are massive decisions at hand for the Lightning, and the choices made going forward will impact the club for years- this was acknowledged by Yzerman himself today when he said, "The next two summers are going to define our team for the next 7 or 8 years. It's going to define the core of our team."
In this post, I will play Mr. Yzerman and attempt to see what those decisions will look like. To begin, it is useful to 1) say outright that it is impossible in today's salary cap NHL to retain all of these players along with the other skaters more fully secured, and 2) to show exactly what the Lightning's salary situation looks like as of today (for more detail, head to Cap Friendly or General Fanager, which is where the data comes from):
At the December 2015 Board of Governors meeting, Gary Bettman gave a rough projection for next season's salary cap as rising up to $3 million; it rose $2.4 million after 2015. I projected the 2016/2017 salary cap at exactly $74 million (as Cap Friendly does) and raised it $2.6 million in the three subsequent seasons shown. Also notable is my assumption of a Matthew Carle buyout- frankly, I cannot see any other path forward for the Lightning. Trading Carle requires him to waive his no movement clause, and failing to buy him out given his play and scratching during much of the Eastern Conference Final completely ties the Lightning's hands cap-wise. If he is on the 2016/2017 roster, I will be absolutely shocked.
With the framework established, it becomes necessary to make a clear distinction between a Stamkos-less future and one in which Stamkos is re-signed. I advocated re-signing the captain in essentially all salary scenarios last summer; my opinion has not changed, but somewhat happily, I am revising my projection for his average annual value downwards from what I had him pegged in July. This is based on the Lightning's reported offer to Stamkos of 8 years, $8,500,000 AAV (per Sportsnet's Friedman); obviously, Stamkos did not accept that pact, but it makes me believe a potential contract would probably not exceed the entirely arbitrary on my part $9.7 million. Of course, there is every chance that salary simply does not meet Stamkos' demands and that he signs elsewhere this summer. In that case, Yzerman's job gets a lot easier (though of course, it costs the Lightning one of the best players in the NHL):
Lightning Roster Make-Up: Stammergeddon Meltdown Scenario
There are three immediate takeaways, the first of which only applies to this scenario and the latter two applying to both:
1) The core (less Stamkos) stays intact.
Of course, this depends on what your exact definition of the Lightning core is (there's one chess piece sized 2017/2018 absence we'll touch on further on), but without Stamkos, it becomes fairly easy to retain TB's biggest stars such as Hedman and Kucherov along with secondary firepower like Killorn and the other two Triplets. The fit is snug, especially in 2017/2018, and there are some sunny assumptions sprinkled into these deal projections- for instance, Andrej Sustr and/or Slater Koekkoek could outperform a $2 million price tag next season and necessitate a better deal, or Hedman may sign for something more like $9.5 million, or even Namestnikov may ink for more than the $2.5 million I have him pegged at. All in all, though, the figures are realistic, and for the next 4 seasons, the Lightning would field a similar squad as the one that just took an elite Penguins team to Game 7 in the conference finals and which is certainly capable of competing. Next season especially would be crucial with the entire gang still here and $4 million in spare change available for a 1 year UFA/trade deadline acquisition, but it's hard to see this group ever missing the postseason- it's a quality roster. (Italicized figures indicate replacement players- for instance, I prognosticate Brian Boyle's departure being filled with an AHL/ELC replacement in terms of the roster spot; specifically, Paquette would take over his lower line center role.)
2) What will the goaltending situation look like?
One thing is for certain- after next year, it is almost guaranteed that the Lightning cannot retain both of their current excellent goalies. Not only are their obvious unpalatable salary conditions to keeping both Vasilevskiy and Bishop- there's also the very real chance that an expansion draft occurs next summer, wherein teams may only protect one goaltender. My choice, as is evident, is to allow Bishop to walk after next season, roll with Vasy, and sign a backup for $1.5 million (about the going rate for an NHL backup). It's as much a function of the salary realities as it is faith in the young Russian who performed so admirably in TB's last playoff series- I cannot envision Bishop's next contract being any less than $5.5 million, and the cap savings are absolutely crucial. $4 million is a generous projection for Vasilevskiy's next contract, but his potential has been highly regarded since he was drafted and he has done nothing to frustrate those expectations. If Bishop is your choice, you must both sacrifice another forward like Paquette and Namestnikov to get under the cap and lose Vasy (obviously)- for me, 2017/2018 and beyond Vasilevskiy is close enough to Bishop at that point in time to justify losing Big Ben (who would, by the way, be on the wrong side of 30).
3) 86's next deal could go a number of ways.
I would not blink if the Lightning announced tomorrow that they'd given Nikita Kucherov the same deal they gave Steven Stamkos when he was a restricted free agent- 5 years at $7.5 million. I would be similarly unfazed if Tampa Bay extended Kucherov through the remainder of his RFA years at a lower price tag and revisited his contract later, partially as a function of all the other expiring players the Lightning must also deal with. I split the difference here and give #86 a significant investment that doesn't quite put him among the game's elite in terms of salary but which pays him handsomely. Personally, I would love to sign Kucherov to a pact as long as possible and to hope to get a steal of a deal akin to Hedman's contract or John Tavares' splendid 6 years $5.5 million AAV agreement inked back in 2011- to me, Kucherov is that good. Perhaps the Lightning could do that and lock up Kucherov for 6 or 7 years at this proposed $6.5 million price tag- there a lot of possibilities and a wide range of salaries his deal could end up looking at. It depends both on the negotiation and preferences of the Kucherov camp and the strategy of the Lightning.
If #91 decides to stick with the Lightning, things get significantly harder. In that case, the Lightning would have the chance to have a core group of Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, Stralman, Drouin, and more all in their prime. That's formidable. But there would be costs and forfeitures throughout the roster- and lots of trust in young players and low-cost options. Injuries to the top guns would be fatal. But it would be possible, and the just the possibility of those names together long-term is extremely appetizing. It would have to look something like this:
Lightning Roster Make-Up: Flight of the Stamkostross- but at what cost?
Obviously, there was a lot more activity and players moved to make Stamkos work with the cap (for starters, my projection made it necessary to sign an even lesser backup goalie to reinforce Vasilevskiy in the first year of the new Hedman deal). Immediately apparent are:
1) Farewell to some useful Tampa Bay skaters- already.
My projection sees the Lightning deal Alex Killorn and fill his spot with a cheaper player either acquired in the trade or signed to an estimated (and also arbitrary) $2 million AAV, and further bids adieu to the likes of Nikita Nesterov, Cedric Paquette, and JT Brown, with all players being replaced by cheap AHL/ELC players (your Mike Blundens and Jonathan Marchessaults). Perhaps one of the latter three could be re-signed at a reasonable cost and dealt the next season to make way for Victor Hedman's new deal (given the over $1 million in space on the projected books for next season), but in any case, the Lightning will certainly lose one of the Triplets 2.0 (or go in a radically different direction from what I have here- think someone major being traded) sooner rather than later. I think Killer, Tyler Johnson, and Ondrej Palat are all excellent 2nd line players. I also think one would have to be a casualty of signing one of the league's most dynamic players in Steven Stamkos to a long-term contract.
2) Buyouts and trades galore- now and in the future.
The worst thing a GM can do in sports is go to their owner and ask them to spend their money on a player specifically not to play for their team. And yet, Steve Yzerman (for all his talents) has made doing so a necessity to retaining Stamkos thanks to all of the no movement clauses and no trade clauses he has administered over the years to declining veteran players. Most tangibly, I am afraid that the TBL GM will be reticent to part with former teammate Valtteri Filppula- whose departure I view as an absolute necessity to the adequate efficient Stamkos reaction plan. As his shots and expected goals stats and on-ice and off-ice measures (and rate production) show, he is a declining, potentially below average forward who also makes $5,000,000. Eating his buyout hit (the number shown is the buyout plus an ELC/AHL salary) when not doing so probably means losing a cheaper forward like Vladislav Namestnikov (see player card- courtesy @IneffectiveMath's HockeyViz) is crucial to keeping Stamkos; Val cannot be traded thanks to a no movement clause in his contract he likely would not waive. Similarly, the heavy cap hit of Jason Garrison will also need to be bought ought to pave the way for Hedman's new deal- and can also not be traded thanks to a full no trade clause. Further down the line, Braydon Coburn will also become a superfluous piece- I was surprised he was re-upped for so long, but Yzerman did save some cap hit with Coburn's extension. In any case, the Lightning have created a perilous situation in terms of potentially suboptimal veteran contracts (I didn't even consider trying to move Ryan Callahan's onerous deal), and will have to navigate them efficiently to keep the young, prime core intact.
3) The youth and organizational depth will be tested.
If you thought the Lightning had to dig deep into the recesses of the organization this season, get used to it- losing all of those secondary pieces to keep Stamkos will require the team to do the same going forward. Players like Brayden Point and Adam Erne look promising, and will have to produce at young ages to give the Lightning legitimate secondary scoring. Anthony DeAngelo and Dominik Masin (or other young defenders) will also need to find their game quickly- and of course, I've already assumed that Slater Koekkoek is NHL-ready now. There are tons of ELC/AHL salary assumptions all over my contract schedule- they're optimistic in terms of players being able to perform at NHL levels but necessary to fit Stamkos, Drouin, Hedman, and co. Alternatively, the Bolts could trade another Triplets 2.0 player to balance the depth- but I feel the allure of Johnson and Palat backing up the other talented forwards is worth the roster being more skeletal at its lower levels.
Overall, it would be highly challenging for Yzerman to keep all of these key pieces- already, it's fair to assume someone significant will have to exit. But the payoff would be incredible- the Lightning could have one of the most stacked forward groups in the game. As this year's Stanley Cup Final shows, deep forward groups win championships; if Tampa Bay holds Stamkos and beyond, they will have just that.
Summarizing:
The Lightning have a number of significant salary decisions to make both this summer and in the coming years. The relatively easy days of managing this roster, and the room to make free agent splashes and mistakes, are gone. Tampa Bay can continue this compete window and extend it- but doing so will require smart moves and careful decision-making. There are paths forward both with and without Stamkos, but in any case, the Lightning will likely be forced to surrender a quality piece, much like the Blackhawks have been required to do multiple times during their compete window (most recently, Brandon Saad was an example of this necessity). Tampa Bay has not quite had the success of Chicago yet, but it can emulate its example by making savvy player trades and acquisitions. While it is disappointing that the Lightning failed to earn a championship during the early days of this core, the potential remains for this roster to compete for years to come- as long as the choices of this summer and the immediate future prove to be the correct ones.
